Gridiron Challenge: Previewing the wild-card round

Bye Weeks: Giants (NFC No. 1 seed), Panthers (NFC No. 2 seed), Titans (AFC No. 1 seed), Steelers (AFC No. 2 seed).

Falcons over Cardinals: Looking at the starting quarterbacks, it's the rookie versus the experienced, battle-tested veteran, a matchup that might seem like an obvious call in favor of the home-team Cardinals. But the facts are the facts -- the Cardinals were 2-8 outside the NFC West, including a loss in each of their final five of those contests, in which their opponents averaged 38.8 points per game. Kurt Warner presents a formidable challenge for the Falcons, but he alone can't make up for a shoddy running game and an even poorer defense.

Colts over Chargers: The Chargers might have won both meetings in 2007 -- including the all-important playoff matchup -- but different year, different teams. The Colts won in San Diego in Week 12, enter the postseason on a longer hot streak (nine straight wins) than the Chargers (four) and were 5-1 against playoff teams during the regular season. They also are led by Peyton Manning, winner of seven of his past 11 playoff games. Do you really want to bet against him?

Ravens over Dolphins: Like the Colts, the Ravens already have visited the den of their opponent, and they won even more handily than Indianapolis, defeating the Dolphins 27-13 in Week 7. Baltimore couldn't play much better defense than it has the past six weeks, during which it has allowed 64 total points, and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron -- the former Miami coach -- surely will have a tip or two to help his team in its quest. These offenses are somewhat similar, but Baltimore's defense has a significant advantage.

Vikings over Eagles: This is the toughest call of the four, in my mind, and if Gus Frerotte were Minnesota's starting quarterback, I probably would feel stronger about this choice. But home-field advantage is a big one, especially for the Vikings; they have won 64 of their past 92 home games (playoffs included) since 1998. The Eagles didn't exactly assert themselves as much of a turf team this season, and they'll be facing a defense near full strength with the probable return of Pat Williams.

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts (@SD, 5.0): San Diego allowed an NFL-worst 10.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in the regular season.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals (ATL, 5.9)
Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (@SD, 7.1): 255 yards and two touchdowns in Week 12 at San Diego; has averaged 341 yards and added nine touchdowns in his past five games against the Chargers.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (@ARI, 6.7)
Roddy White, WR, Falcons (@ARI, 5.7)

Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams (@MIA, 6.0 price tag): It's a road game, and that has me wary; it's not easy to win, let alone excel defensively, away from home. But I'm picking my defensive team from this game, and again, Baltimore has the clear defensive advantage. The Ravens have been a double-digit points machine all season, and let's face it, on Miami's side, Chad Pennington has limited arm strength and Ronnie Brown managed a mere 311 rushing yards and one touchdown in his final six games of the regular season.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens (@MIA, 5.8): I'm big on the rookie quarterbacks this week; did you see how well they played down the stretch? Flacco led the Ravens to wins in nine of their final 11 games, and he averaged 13.8 points per game by Gridiron Playoff Challenge standards. That's not an elite number, but he drew perhaps the most favorable matchup he could have in the wild-card week; Miami ranked 25th against the pass in the regular season. The Dolphins are a team vulnerable in the secondary.

Michael Jenkins, WR, Falcons (@ARI, 4.7): I listed Roddy White among the obvious plays above, but there's enough to like in this matchup that if you need a cheap sleeper to keep your cap in check, Jenkins is your man. Arizona allowed 36 passing touchdowns during the regular season, the most in the league, and the most by any team since 2003, in fact. Jenkins totaled 16 receptions for 257 yards in his final four regular-season games, and while not one went for a touchdown, there's a better-than-even chance he'll manage one this week.

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (@MIA, 4.9): He managed 48 points by GPC standards in his final five regular-season games, and before you call that an ordinary number, be aware that many of those points were accrued while he was battling a painful shoulder injury. Mason stepped up when the Ravens needed it, and remember, back in these teams' Week 7 meeting, he caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. He's Flacco's most trusted -- and consistent -- target, and it's quite the favorable matchup.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons (@ARI, 6.5): The Associated Press 2008 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Ryan struggled down the stretch but nevertheless was a huge part of the Falcons' charge into the postseason. He averaged 14.2 points by GPC standards in his final 10 games, more than Flacco, and draws a more favorable matchup than the Baltimore quarterback. Arizona allowed 18.7 points per game -- again, GPC scoring -- to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, most in the NFL, and was shredded for 67 combined by Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Cassel and Seneca Wallace in Weeks 15 through 17.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (IND, 5.7): Is he an "obvious start"? Maybe, but I don't think so, not with him having fallen short of 100 rushing yards in eight consecutive games and short of 15 fantasy points in 10 of 16 games for the season. If you watched Tomlinson in that must-win Week 17, though, surely you know how fired up he is in these critical weeks, perhaps the last hurrah for his career as an elite fantasy running back. Indianapolis had the second-worst run defense of any of the 12 playoff teams (Atlanta was the worst) and allowed the most rushing touchdowns (18) in the regular season. He's a one-and-done, probably, but a high-upside one.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (BAL, 5.6): Managed only 13 carries for 27 yards against the Ravens in Week 7.
Todd Heap, TE, Ravens (@MIA, 4.1)
Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers (IND, 5.1): The Colts allowed only six passing touchdowns the entire regular season.
Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins (BAL, 6.3)

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Don't forget, folks, as I noted in my Gridiron Playoff Challenge strategy piece, it's critical that you complete a full playoff bracket before making your picks. How else will you be able to determine which players will offer the most games? Here's mine:

AFC/NFC wild-card playoffs: Falcons over Cardinals, Colts over Chargers, Ravens over Dolphins and Vikings over Eagles.
AFC/NFC divisional playoffs: Ravens over Titans, Panthers over Vikings, Giants over Falcons and Steelers over Colts.
AFC/NFC championships: Giants over Panthers, Steelers over Ravens.
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers over Giants.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.